In conclusion to the preceding tip on value betting,
the following instructions are for determining just
how much money you should bet on a value bet.
Depending on the assigned odds of the bet and the
subjective probability of winning (which you assign
to the bet), the amount of your stake can range
considerably. The formula used for calculating
the percentage of one's bankroll to place on a value
bet was created by the well-known professional
gambler, John Kelly.
The formula must have the following variables in
order to work: Probability of bet winning, which should be expressed in
decimals. For instance, if you believe the probability of you bet winning
to be 57%, the decimal expression of this is .57. The other variable you
will need to plug into the formula are the odds dictated by the sportsbook.
Kelly's formula looks like this:
Advantage = Probability - [(1 - Probability) (odds - 1)]. The calculated
value of Advantage should then be converted into a percentage by multiplying it
by 100. This then, is the percentage of one's bankroll that should be
staked on the odds.
For a bet with odds of 2, and probability of .6
(60%), the calculation would look like this:
A = .6 - [(1 - .6) (2 - 1)] = .6 - [.4 1] = .6 - .4 = .2 = 20%
For this particular bet, one should bet no more or
less than 20% of their bankroll. Just keep in mind that the determination
of the probability of winning is a vital step. If you overestimate this
value, you will likely lose money. If you underestimate the probability,
you will not lose money, but you will not win as much. Obviously, the safer
route is to underestimate the probability when in doubt. Be sure to do all
of your research ahead of time, giving yourself the proper knowledge to make an
accurate assessment of the probability.